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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."