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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However the current field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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